The talking heads on TV give such a convincing story about what the future holds that its hard not to believe them. But pinning them down to a time-frame and discrete future event is often next to impossible, so you can never determine whether they were right or wrong. When such talking heads are pinned down, their track-record turns out to be very poor, according to Philip Tetlock in his latest book “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction“. This makes sense as they are picked more for their entertainment value, than their track-records.
The real super-forecasters are people like Doug Lorch (ex-IBM, retired, lives in Santa Barbara), Mary Simpson (independent financial consultant, formerly regulatory affairs at utility Southern California Edison) and Devyn Duffy (welfare case worker, Pittsburgh). Continue reading “11 Commandments For Predicting the Future (2min read)”
I attended the annual Power Shift conference at Oxford’s Said business school earlier this week. It’s led by the excellent Professor Linda Scott and focuses on women and the world economy. While there was so much great content, here are the 4 things that stood out for me:
1) There’s an app to tell you how women-friendly a business is! Amy-Willard Cross has come up with an awesome app called the “Buy Up Index“(available on iPhone and Android). You type in a company and it grades the company across four categories: employees, ads, leadership and other. I typed in “Nike” and found that they score an “A” overall. They got “A”s for all categories except ads, where they got a “B” (let down by their Hurley brand, which mainly shows male surfers). Check it out. Continue reading “4 Things I Learnt About Women Recently (2min read)”
That’s the sub-title of Luke Johnson’s breezy book “Start It Up“. He’s the man behind Pizza Express, Strada, Giraffe and Patisserie Valerie. He was also Chairman of Channel Four and a one-time columnist for the FT.
For all us salaried corporate types, it’s always nice to imagine a life free from the shackles of office politics and feelings of insignificance. Here are his main points on how to achieve it: Continue reading “Running Your Own Business Is Easier Than You Think”
I’ve just started writing a book on finance! It has a chapter on women in banking and below is some source material. It’s from perhaps the most comprehensive book on the general topic of women and work: “What Works for Women at Work: Four Patterns Working Women Need to Know” by Joan Williams. The four patterns: Continue reading “4 Challenges Women Face That Men Don’t”
1. The Law Of Leadership.
It’s better to be first than it is to be better. Gillette was the first safety razor, Heineken was the first imported beer in the US and Harvard the first college in the US. And who’s the best in each category? Most would conflate first with best. Moreover, how easy is it to remember the second? Who was the second person to the run the four minute mile after Roger Banister? Who was the second US president after George Washington?*