11 Commandments For Predicting the Future (2min read)


The talking heads on TV give such a convincing story about what the future holds that its hard not to believe them. But pinning them down to a time-frame and discrete future event is often next to impossible, so you can never determine whether they were right or wrong. When such talking heads are pinned down, their track-record turns out to be very poor, ¬†according to Philip Tetlock in his latest book “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction“. This makes sense as they are picked more for their entertainment value, than their track-records.

The real super-forecasters are people like Doug Lorch (ex-IBM, retired, lives in Santa Barbara), Mary Simpson ¬†(independent financial consultant, formerly regulatory affairs at utility Southern California Edison) and Devyn Duffy (welfare case worker, Pittsburgh). Continue reading “11 Commandments For Predicting the Future (2min read)”