The talking heads on TV give such a convincing story about what the future holds that its hard not to believe them. But pinning them down to a time-frame and discrete future event is often next to impossible, so you can never determine whether they were right or wrong. When such talking heads are pinned down, their track-record turns out to be very poor, according to Philip Tetlock in his latest book “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction“. This makes sense as they are picked more for their entertainment value, than their track-records.
The real super-forecasters are people like Doug Lorch (ex-IBM, retired, lives in Santa Barbara), Mary Simpson (independent financial consultant, formerly regulatory affairs at utility Southern California Edison) and Devyn Duffy (welfare case worker, Pittsburgh). Continue reading “11 Commandments For Predicting the Future (2min read)”